Tropical Storm Leslie Could Imact US!!

Good Evening, Tropical Storm Leslie is located just north and east of the Lesser Antilles Islands this evening and is moving west-northwest near 18 MPH. Leslie is forecast to turn more to the northwest and then north near a break or weakness in the Atlantic ridge of high pressure. This weakness largely caused by Hurricane Kirk could ultimately steer Leslie out to sea east of Bermuda. However many factors are at play with the steering of Leslie, including the remnants of Hurricane Isaac, a cutoff low pressure forecast to develop near Florida, and the timing and strength of troughs of low pressure exiting the east coast over the next few days. Leslie has remained weak while dealing with northwesterly shear, but could strengthen in a few days to hurricane strength as she continues northward. Models diverge on a track near Bermuda to one that would directly impact the U.S. Models should come into better agreement in a few days as some of the steering influences become more clear. All interests along the East Coast of the United States and Bermuda should keep a close eye on Leslie. Thanks, Jeremy

Hurricane Isaac Makes Landfall in Louisiana!!

Good Aftenoon, Hurricane Isaac made landfall last night just west of the mouth of the Mississippi river with sustained winds of 80 MPH with higher gusts. Thereafter Isaac wobble southwest and offshore making a second landfall near Grand Isle and Houma Louisiana later last night. After making landfall the second time, Isaac stalled for 6 to 8 hours dumping 10 inches of rainfall and creating storm surges of 10 to 12 feet in some places along SE Louisiana, south Mississippi, and southern Alabama. Isaac continues to meander off to the northwest while maintaining hurricane intensity and a rather impressive satellite and radar appearance. Isaac is forecast to move very slowly off to the northwest passing between Lafayette and Baton Rouge Louisiana. Thereafter models diverge a bit from a track northward in to Arkansas or a path more northwestward to west-northwestward into eastern Texas. Regardless of track Isaac is a very large well structured system and impacts will be felt over a large area. Everyone living within a watch or warning area should pay close attention to Isaac and heed warnings from the NWS, NHC, and local officials. Thanks, Jeremy

Good Afternoon, Tropical Storm Isaac continues to slowly strengthen as he moves into the central Gulf of Mexico. The latest information from the hurricane hunters show slowly lowering pressures and a ragged eye approximately 26 miles in diameter. The last 4 fixes from the hurricane hunters show a trend more toward the west-northwest as opposed to the northwest motion forecast by the National Hurricane Center. This is most likely in response to the high pressure system to Isaac's north being a bit stronger than forecasted. Model guidance continue to be in conflict with the European model and the UKMET on the eastern side of the envelope and the GFDL and the GFS on the western flank. Intensity forecast also continues to be a challenge. Currently Isaac is forecast by the NHC to make landfall at Categeory 1 status. Given the warm gulf temps, low wind shear, and good upper level outflow i would not be surprised to see Isaac make a run at Category 2 status before landfall. Since confidence in final landfall is low everyone from SE Texas to the Mississippi coastlines should monitor Isaac's progress. Subtle shifts or jogs in track could influence Isaac's eventual landfall location. Regardless of exact location of landfall, Isaac will have an influence over a large area due to his size. Also storm surge amounts are likely to be greater than the windspeeds would indicate due to his massive windfield. Some models are hinting at a slowing or stall near the coast with a bend more to the left or west, which would also allow water to pile up along the coastlines. I expect a storm surge of 8-12 feet to the east of landfall location. Depending upon landfall location SE Texas should feel impacts of Isaac. A track near New Orleans would result in only brisk northerly winds but a track near SW Louisiana would result in heavy winds and rain as Isaac makes his closest path to our east. Please continue to monitor this situation and i will update later today! Thanks, Jeremy

TS Isaac Disorganized Near NE Cuba

Good Afternoon, I appologise for not posting an update sooner, but family illness has kept me busy!! Tropical Storm Isaac crossed the extreme western tip of Haiti and then moved over the eastern tip of Cuba late last night and is still hovering near the northeast Cuban coastlines. Isaac should begin to strengthen once over the warm waters of the Florida straits in 12 to 24 hours. Isaac should move northwest into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and strengthen to a hurricane near the southern tip of Florida. Thereafter the forecast track as well as intensity is a bit tricky. A trough of low pressure in the mid layers of the atmosphere will lift northeastward leaving behind a weakness along the periphery of the Atlantic high. How pronounced this weakness is combined with the intensity of Isaac will ultimately determine Isaac's track. Models are in fairly good agreement through day 2, however thereafter a significant spread in the guidance envelope is noted from run to run. The latest run of the GFS has Isaac making landfall along the MS and AL border, while in a new twist the Euro has Isaac making landfall along the Florida panhandle. It must be also noted that many members of the GFS ensemble runs are west of the mouth of the Mississippi river, with one near Galveston. My confidence is low after 48 hours and all interests from Eastern Texas to Florida should monitor the progress of Isaac. Immediate impacts will be tropical storm force conditions in the Florida Keys and thereafter possible hurricane conditions in extreme southern Florida with storm surge of 5-7 feet. Hurricane preparations in those areas should be rushed to completion and all warnings by local officials heeded. Thanks, Jeremy

Tropical Storm Isaac....Westward Trend!!

Good Afternoon,

Quick update...models this afternoon have trended significantly westward with the 12Z Euro model bringing Isaac ashore on the Texas/Louisiana border. While the GFS has landfall near the Florida panhandle, significant westward shifts are occurring with this model as well. This could be due to Isaac staying weaker than forecast. All interests from SE Texas to the Florida coastlines should closely monitor this situation!!

Thanks

Jeremy Mansfield

Ts Isaac Still Weak

Good Afternoon, Tropical Storm Isaac continues to become more defined and is expanding in size. The hurricane hunters are currently investigating the system and could find the center relocating further south and west than the previous fix. This could have an impact on eventuall track. The models are in fairly good agreement through day 3 keeping Isaac just south of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola. Then the models diverge somewhat with the Euro model staying south of Cuba and the GFS crossing eastern Cuba toward southern Florida. I have little confidence in the five day track of Isaac, so interests from the GOM to Florida should closely monitor this situation!! Thanks, Jeremy

TS Helene, Hurricane Gordon, Isaac Soon to Come!!

Good Morning, Hurricane Gordon continues to move off to the east towards the Azores Islands as a 85 MHP storm. Gordon could strengthen a bit more before moving into cooler waters and becoming extra-tropical. Hurricane Gordon is no threat to any US landmass. Tropical Storm Helene has made landfall along the central Mexican coastline this morning and has been downgraded to a tropical depression. While dissipation over land seems likely over the next few days over northern Mexico, a second solution is also possible as depicted by the GFS model. Helene could move back out over water and restrengthen, possibly moving northward toward the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. It is also possible that the GFS is "seeing" a piece of energy or leftover convection interating with a frontal system currently pushing into SE Texas and later offshore. Development along frontal boundaries are all too common this time of year especially since conditions in the Gulf of Mexico appear to be favorable and water temperatures are high. This is something to watch over the next few days as steering currents for Helene remain weak and it appears she may meander for a few days. Invest 94L has been designated for a robust tropical wave that moved off the African coast a few days ago. Models are latching onto development of this system and conditions appear to be ripe in the central and western Atlantic as 94L makes its trek westward. All indications are that this system could become Tropical Storm Isaac in 24 to 36 hrs. This system will need to be watched closely over the next few days and will likely become the leading weather story as most models predict 94L developing into a powerful system. The first landmass to feel future Isaac's effects will be the Lesser Antilles Islands and Puerto Rico in approximately 5 days or so. Thereafter the models diverge somewhat on a track into the Gulf of Mexico by a weaker system, or recurve just off the East Coast by a strong hurricane. A recurve near Bermuda is also not out of the question. Future Isaacs eventual track will depend on the orientation of the A/B high, and timing of troughs of low pressure over the eastern seaboard. This area needs to be watched carefully over the next 10 days or so. Thanks, Jeremy

Ts Gordon Forms....GOM Development Possible!!

Good Morning,

Tropical Storm Gordon has formed in the north central atlantic this morning. Ts Gordon is moving northward but is forecast to move northeastward with time possibly affecting the Azores Islands in a few days.  Although Gordon is not forecast to become a hurricane, a strong tropical storm is not out if the question. Tropical Storm Gordon will be no threat to the United States coastlines.
     Later this weekend the remnants of what once was TD#7 will move into the Bay of Campeche bringing tropical moisture to the area. The combination of this energy combined with a frontal boundary pushing southward into the GOM could bring some development over the course of the weekend. This area should be watched for development and we will keep you posted if that is indeed the case.

Thanks,

Jeremy

Tropical Outlook: Eastern Pacific/ Atlantic

Good Afternoon Everyone! 

Acronym Key: 
SAL: Saharan Air Layer
LLC: Low Level Circulation
EPAC: Eastern Pacific Ocean
EATL: Eastern Atlantic Ocean
MCP: Minimum Central Pressure
CDO: Central Dense Overcast
GOM: Gulf of Mexico
NHC: National Hurricane Center
UKMET: United Kingdom Met Office Model
NOGAPS: Navy Operational Global Prediction System 
CMC: Environment Canada Global Environmental Multiscale Model 
ECMWF: The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s Global Model
GFS: Global Forecasting System
ITCZ: Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone
COC: Center of Circulation
AOI: Area of Interest


The tropics are currently rather quiet for this time of year, and I don’t expect any major activity for about 3-4 days. The remnants of TD07 continue to struggle through the Central Caribbean. A combination of dry air, wind shear, and trade winds continue to eat away at whatever convection tries to develop. Some computer models try bring TD07 back to life and some don’t. I am going to hedge my bets on TD07 not reforming. There are just too many obstacles in the way for the wave including land, and more dry air out in front of the system. I would probably be at 10% chance of redeveloping, which is a little bit lower then the NHC’s 20% chance. As for 93L, I do not see this system developing and would also put it at a 10% chance for redevelopment. According to model guidance, 93L will merge with a trough of low pressure as it starts to make its way out to sea. Convection has also been nonexistent throughout its lifecycle due to a large amount of dry air entangled within the storm. 


Remnants of TD07 struggle to survive. 


93L will not escape the dry air for some time.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic there is a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa that currently has a little bit of spin to it. If the wave can fire off more convection and vorticity values come up, an invest of the area could be required. 


850 mb shows an elongated spin coming off of Africa. 

Hector remains a highly sheared tropical cyclone with most of the convection off to the west of the LLC. The current CI Dvorak values tag this system as a weak tropical storm. The forecast for Hector is to continue on a westward track for a day or two and then start to move northwestward where it will encounter cooler SST’s. At this point it will degenerate into a remnant low. Also in the EPAC we have invest 95E. This area of concern is not forecasted to develop in the next 48 hours, but the area will still have to be monitored. 


Hector trying to fire off convection in the EPAC. 

Thanks everyone for reading! 
Also, these forecasts do not reflect the OFFICIAL forecasts from the NHC; please consult the NHC for official public forecast on all active Tropical Cyclones. 
~Matt~ 

TD#7 Is Dead, Could Regenerate!!

Good Evening, TD #7 was declared dead by the National Hurricane Center this afternoon after a Airforce Recon plane found no closed center of circulation. This system has struggled with dry air and wind shear since its birth so its no surprise that the negative factors won. Some computer models regenerate TD7 in a few days in the western Carribean where conditions could become more favorable, but at this time chances of that look rather slim. Invest 93L is moving northwestward toward an area not conducive for development. If developement should occur most computer models recurve the disturbance well before any interaction with land. A trough of low pressure or cold front is sagging southward into the SE United States and is forecast to push offshore into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. This frontal system combined with an upper level low pressure area moving northward from Cuba could be an area to watch later this weekend. If the ULL can work its way down to the surface there is abundant moisture available in the SE Gulf and historically the cut off portion of a frontal system adds energy to the mix making this an area to keep tabs on the next few days. Thanks, Forecaster Mansfield

TD #7 and Invest 93L

Good Morning, The tropics remain active as we have TD #7 and Invest 93L to discuss today!! Ernesto's remnants will continue to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico. Some global models suggest that the mid level circulation of Ernesto will remain intact and form a new topical cyclone in the East Pacific in the next few days! TD #7 continues to struggle with dry air, fast forward speed and shear as it makes its way westward toward the lesser antilles islands. A path south of Jamaica is not unreasonable considering the low intensity of the disturbance. TD #7 could dissipate or degenerate into an open wave after entering the Carribean in a few days. Invest 93L is near the Cape Verde Islands and could become a tropical cyclone in the next few days as it moves west-northwest into the Atlantic. Current models recurve 93L before impacting any landmass, however conditions do change and we will need to keep a close eye on TD #7 and Invest 93L over the next several days! Thanks, Jeremy

Tropical Storm Ernesto!!

This Tropical Tidbit is from Levi Cowan!! His material will be posted here when i cannot personally post updates!! I trust his forecasts and analysis!!



Ernesto has become better organized since yesterday with a persistent CDO and expansion of the spiral bands and upper-level outflow. However, recon this morning found that Ernesto has not strengthened since yesterday, and the central pressure is actually up a few millibars. The impressive organization of Ernesto with this high of a pressure came as a surprise to me, but the idea that this storm would halt intensification upon entering the Caribbean until about 75W has verified nicely so far. I explain in the video my theory as to why Ernesto has been firing all of this convection without strengthening.
Once past 75W, or about the longitude of Jamaica, conditions will rapidly improve for Ernesto as the upper-level pattern allows expansion of upper ridging above the storm, and the trade winds slow down in the western Caribbean, both of which should allow pressures to fall and the storm to strengthen. We could see Ernesto quickly become a hurricane in the western Caribbean, and a big problem for the Yucatan Peninsula. If Ernesto crosses a portion of the Yucatan it will knock it down, but Ernesto may reach his peak intensity afterwards in the Gulf of Mexico.
Ernesto’s track is still the toughest part of this forecast. It will largely be a function of his intensity, since a stronger storm will tend to move more northward into the weakness in the steering ridge that will be over the north gulf coast over the next several days. The forecasted pattern consists of not a wide open trough, but rather a large area of sprawling, light, erratic winds over the Gulf of Mexico, indicative of a weak steering pattern that a strengthening Ernesto will likely start to turn more northwest into while moving slower. I believe this will eventually take Ernesto near the northeastern Yucatan, and then into the western Gulf of Mexico. The largely uncertain part of the forecast is where the second landfall in the Gulf of Mexico will be. Right now I am leaning towards the idea that Ernesto will be guided back towards the WNW by the Texas ridge into northern Mexico or southern Texas, a solution supported by last night’s ECMWF ensembles. However, this is still 6-8 days out, and if we have a particularly powerful hurricane moving far enough north in the NW Caribbean, the door could open for a track into the north gulf coast instead, so the entire north and west gulf coasts and the Yucatan Peninsula should closely monitor Ernesto, as he could become a big problem down the road.
We shall see what happens!

Tropics Heating Up: Invest 99L

Good Evening,
 Despite a rather dull July in the tropics, things are starting to heat up and become more active. Yesterday an area of low pressure was designated Invest 99L by the National Hurricane Center. This area currently has a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. Also entering the northeast Carribean sea is a vigorous tropical wave. While this wave is not currently expected to develop in the short term, it may have to be watched should it enter the GOM where conditions in 4 to 5 days could be more favorable.

Forecast for Invest 99L
99L is currently embedded within the ITCZ or Intertropical Convergence Zone. Before significant development can occur 99L must lift itself west-northwest and detach from the ITCZ. Conditions are fairly conducive for development as 99L approaches the Lesser Antilles islands this weekend. Most operational model guidance bring 99L to tropical storm status before entering the Carribean Sea. Once in the Carribean wind shear could be a limiting factor to the intensification of 99L due to a weak El Nino. During El Nino years trade winds are typically stronger in the Carribean limiting development of tropical systems. Once in the Carribean the TCHP or tropical cyclone heat potential will come into play in strengthening 99L. The TCHP is the amount of deep hot water available to fuel a tropical cyclone. A recon flight is tentatively scheduled for Friday, August 3. If recon can find a closed area of low pressure the models should be able to get a better handle on where 99L will eventually track.

2012 Tropical Weather Blog Back in Business!!!

Howdy Folks, Back to tropical weather posts...sorry to those who have been waiting on me to update the website..more updates are coming soon...thanks for being patient!! For now the Atlantic basin is relatively quiet with no tropical cyclones expected to develop in the next 7 days. No reliable computer models develop any system in the near future..there is a robust wave exiting Africa's west coast...but dry air in the Atlantic Ocean has thus far stifled any development so far!!! On a local note expect heavy rainfall for the next 7 days as a weak from slowly sags into our area and stalls enhancing moisture in SE Texas...our rain chances should stay in the 60% to 70% chance mainly in the afternoon!!!