Saturday, August 25, 2012

TS Isaac Disorganized Near NE Cuba

Good Afternoon, I appologise for not posting an update sooner, but family illness has kept me busy!! Tropical Storm Isaac crossed the extreme western tip of Haiti and then moved over the eastern tip of Cuba late last night and is still hovering near the northeast Cuban coastlines. Isaac should begin to strengthen once over the warm waters of the Florida straits in 12 to 24 hours. Isaac should move northwest into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and strengthen to a hurricane near the southern tip of Florida. Thereafter the forecast track as well as intensity is a bit tricky. A trough of low pressure in the mid layers of the atmosphere will lift northeastward leaving behind a weakness along the periphery of the Atlantic high. How pronounced this weakness is combined with the intensity of Isaac will ultimately determine Isaac's track. Models are in fairly good agreement through day 2, however thereafter a significant spread in the guidance envelope is noted from run to run. The latest run of the GFS has Isaac making landfall along the MS and AL border, while in a new twist the Euro has Isaac making landfall along the Florida panhandle. It must be also noted that many members of the GFS ensemble runs are west of the mouth of the Mississippi river, with one near Galveston. My confidence is low after 48 hours and all interests from Eastern Texas to Florida should monitor the progress of Isaac. Immediate impacts will be tropical storm force conditions in the Florida Keys and thereafter possible hurricane conditions in extreme southern Florida with storm surge of 5-7 feet. Hurricane preparations in those areas should be rushed to completion and all warnings by local officials heeded. Thanks, Jeremy

Thursday, August 23, 2012

Tropical Storm Isaac....Westward Trend!!

Good Afternoon,

Quick update...models this afternoon have trended significantly westward with the 12Z Euro model bringing Isaac ashore on the Texas/Louisiana border. While the GFS has landfall near the Florida panhandle, significant westward shifts are occurring with this model as well. This could be due to Isaac staying weaker than forecast. All interests from SE Texas to the Florida coastlines should closely monitor this situation!!


Jeremy Mansfield

Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Ts Isaac Still Weak

Good Afternoon, Tropical Storm Isaac continues to become more defined and is expanding in size. The hurricane hunters are currently investigating the system and could find the center relocating further south and west than the previous fix. This could have an impact on eventuall track. The models are in fairly good agreement through day 3 keeping Isaac just south of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola. Then the models diverge somewhat with the Euro model staying south of Cuba and the GFS crossing eastern Cuba toward southern Florida. I have little confidence in the five day track of Isaac, so interests from the GOM to Florida should closely monitor this situation!! Thanks, Jeremy