Thursday, June 2, 2011

Invest 93 Weakening & Watching the Caribbean for Possible Development

Hey guys,
               Invest 93 has made it in to the Gulf of Mexico after crossing Florida yesterday evening but has weakened significantly. The area of low pressure is still somewhat intact and the National Hurricane Center gives it a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in 48 hours. I don't think we will see any more development of this system before it reaches land, probably in deep south Texas or northern Mexico. We will continue to watch this system and keep you updated.
               The next area of concern is located in the west central Caribbean. This is a broad area of low pressure that is producing heavy rain and thunderstorms that extend for several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Hispaniola. The system is currently experiencing strong upper-level winds but these winds should relax over the next couple of days. This low has about a 20% chance of becoming a tropical storm within the next 48 hours according to the National Hurricane Center but after that time conditions should improve and we should start seeing some strengthening. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly in to this system Saturday around noon and we will have more information then. We will contine watching the tropics and bring you the latest information here at Xtreme Weather Tracker.

Xtreme Weather Tracker Mansfield & Dalton

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

New Player Sneaks On to the Field - Trouble in the Tropics

Good Afternoon,

        The 2011 Hurricane Season officially starts today and on cue a new tropical system has slipped through the back door and is worthy of consideration in the coming days. A low pressure system developed late Tuesday, just east of Florida and is now crossing the Florida Peninsula bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the area. The National Hurricane Center has designated this area as "INVEST 93L", which simply means that this is an area of interest worthy of collecting data, running models, and investigating with Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Current model data suggest that "IF" the system can survive crossing the Florida Peninsula that this could be a rainmaker for the Gulf Coast and possibly southeast Texas later this weekend. This system should not develop into a major storm as conditions are only marginally favorable for development in the Gulf of Mexico, however conditions should improve as the week progresses. Current model tracks are clustered around a landfall in the Galveston Bay area, however these models do not yet have a good handle on the system as it is small and disorganized. The Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to fly into this system around noon on Thursday to investigate. All interests in the Gulf of Mexico should keep an eye on this developing system.
        The second area of interest and the area we have been discussing of late, is located in the southwest Caribbean. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms are rotating around a low pressure center located south of Cuba. A tropical wave is also moving into the area to further enhance moisture across the area. All reliable forecast models suggest development of this system in 7 to 10 days. The track of the system is highly uncertain at this point since their are too many variables in place and steering winds remain weak across the Caribbean. We will continue to monitor both evolving systems in the coming days here at Xtreme Weather Tracker.

Xtreme Weather Tracker Mansfield & Dalton

Tuesday, May 31, 2011

First Possible Development of 2011 Currently in the Caribbean

Hey guys,
                  Tomorrow is the official start of the 2011 Hurricane Season and we already have an area in the Caribbean to watch this week. Relaxing wind shear and above normal sea surface temperatures along with a weakening La Nina are the cause for this years early start. We should see less named storms this year than last year but more of the storms will form in the Caribbean, meaning a larger portion of the storms could affect US landmasses than the years previous.
                 The first storm to organize and become of tropical strength will be named Arlene. Our first area to watch is currently located in the Southwestern Caribbean. At this point it is only a broad area of shower and thunderstorms but could first be enhanced by a weak tropical wave moving from the east. The disturbed area could bring over a foot of heavy rain to Haiti and other islands in the northern Caribbean in days ahead. All of the computer models predict that an area of low pressure will form in the region between Jamaica and Honduras by Thursday. This low will have the potential to develop into a tropical depression late this week. We will be watching this area closely over the next several days and keep you updated here at Xtreme Weather Tracker!

Xtreme Weather Trackers Mansfield & Dalton

Satellite images show a broad area of thunderstorms in the Southwestern Caribbean. Strong tropical wave moving east is expected to join with the area of disturbed weather later in the week and this area could become our first tropical low.