Wednesday, June 1, 2011

New Player Sneaks On to the Field - Trouble in the Tropics

Good Afternoon,

        The 2011 Hurricane Season officially starts today and on cue a new tropical system has slipped through the back door and is worthy of consideration in the coming days. A low pressure system developed late Tuesday, just east of Florida and is now crossing the Florida Peninsula bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the area. The National Hurricane Center has designated this area as "INVEST 93L", which simply means that this is an area of interest worthy of collecting data, running models, and investigating with Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Current model data suggest that "IF" the system can survive crossing the Florida Peninsula that this could be a rainmaker for the Gulf Coast and possibly southeast Texas later this weekend. This system should not develop into a major storm as conditions are only marginally favorable for development in the Gulf of Mexico, however conditions should improve as the week progresses. Current model tracks are clustered around a landfall in the Galveston Bay area, however these models do not yet have a good handle on the system as it is small and disorganized. The Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to fly into this system around noon on Thursday to investigate. All interests in the Gulf of Mexico should keep an eye on this developing system.
        The second area of interest and the area we have been discussing of late, is located in the southwest Caribbean. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms are rotating around a low pressure center located south of Cuba. A tropical wave is also moving into the area to further enhance moisture across the area. All reliable forecast models suggest development of this system in 7 to 10 days. The track of the system is highly uncertain at this point since their are too many variables in place and steering winds remain weak across the Caribbean. We will continue to monitor both evolving systems in the coming days here at Xtreme Weather Tracker.

Xtreme Weather Tracker Mansfield & Dalton

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