Saturday, September 3, 2011

Tropical Storm Lee Strengthens Near Landfall!!

Good Morning,

Quick update on TS Lee located 100 miles south of Lafayette, La. Lee has sustained winds of 60 MPH and should make landfall just west of the Achafalaya Bay later this afternoon. Thereafter Lee is forecast to move slowly northward into central Louisiana before turning more to the northeast in 3 to 4 days. Currently SE Texas is receiving light to moderate rainfall and gusty northeast winds from Lee!! Thanks for stopping by!!



Thanks,

Jeremy Mansfield

Xtreme Weather Tracker

Friday, September 2, 2011

Tropical Storm Lee to Soak Louisiana!!!

Good Afternoon,

Tropical Storm Lee formed this afternoon from Depression #13. As of 1 PM Lee had sustained winds of 40 MPH with higher gusts. Lee is currently wobbling to the northwest at 4 MPH. Steering currents should remain relatively light over the next couple of days and Lee should slowly meander to the north or northwest and finally make landfall on the coast of Louisiana somewhere between Lake Charles and Morgan City although my confidence in this forecast is low at best. The models are struggling with Lee's final outcome with some keeping him offshore through Tuesday to others looping Lee in the Gulf of Mexico and a couple of models taking Lee southwest into Brownsville. Parts of SE Louisiana could receive over a foot of rainfall over the next five days, while drought stricken Texas may not even see an inch of rain as it should remain on the western side of the circulation or "clean" side of the storm. Updates will follow as conditions are likely to remain uncertain in the future! Hurricane Katia is located northwest of the Leeward Islands moving west-northwestward at 15 MPH. Katia is forecast to move close to the SE coast of the US next week. While it is too early to forecast what Katia's impacts on the SE will be it is safe to say that Katia will need to be closely watched over the next few days!!! One more area of interest off the east coast of the US could possibly become a tropical storm over the next few hours. If a storm does form it will pose no threat to any land areas and it is interesting to note that if Maria does form today we will have tied 2005 as Hurricane Maria formed on September 2, 2005!! If this trend continues we could rival 2005 which was the most active hurricane season on record with 28 named storms!!! Thanks for stopping by!!!





Thanks,

Jeremy Mansfield

Xtreme Weather Tracker

Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Gulf Development Likely!!!

Good Afternoon,

Over the next several days we will be watching for development of Tropical Storm Lee in the NW Gulf of Mexico. An old frontal boundary combined with a tropical wave moving northwest out of the Caribbean should combine to form low pressure in the Central Gulf of Mexico. All indications are at this time that the low will move northwestward toward the upper Texas coastline and stall for a couple of days as steering currents are forecast to remain weak. Any stalling or meandering system in the warm Gulf water temps (88 degrees) could spell trouble and it is possible that a hurricane could form just off the Texas, Louisiana coastlines before getting pulled northward by a shortwave trough swinging through the northeast. At the very least SE Texas and SW Louisiana should expect enhanced rainfall chances and possible drought busting drenching tropical moisture to invade the area Thursday thru Monday. Tropical Storm Katia is located in the central Atlantic and should become a hurricane in 24 to 36 hours. Thereafter she is forecast to move north of the Leeward Islands as a major hurricane and could threaten Bermuda. While it is still too early to forecast whether or not Katia will impact the US it is looking more likely that a re-curve near Bermuda is the more likely scenario. Keep checking back for more updates. Thanks for stopping by!!




Thanks,

Jeremy Mansfield

Xtreme Weather Tracker

Monday, August 29, 2011

TD #12 & Rain on the Way for Texas!!!

Good Afternoon,

We are monitoring TD #12 in the far eastern Atlantic just southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. TD #12 is forecast to become Tropical Storm Katia in the next 24 to 36 hours. After a trek across the Atlantic in a west-northwesterly fashion TD # 12 could possible again threaten the SE U.S. Models vary on eventual track with some re-curving east of Bermuda. We also have some homegrown tropical trouble to discuss. An area of disturbed weather coupled with a trough split could develop in the western Gulf of Mexico toward the end of this week bringing at least much needed rainfall for Texas. The National Weather Service has issued a special weather statement for SE Texas and SW Louisiana stating that a widespread area of 2 to 3 inches of rainfall is expected with some areas receiving up to 7 inches of rainfall starting Thursday through Sunday of this week. Thanks for stopping by!!!



Thanks,

Jeremy Mansfield

Xtreme Weather Tracker