Saturday, September 1, 2012
Wednesday, August 29, 2012
Monday, August 27, 2012
Saturday, August 25, 2012
Thursday, August 23, 2012
Quick update...models this afternoon have trended significantly westward with the 12Z Euro model bringing Isaac ashore on the Texas/Louisiana border. While the GFS has landfall near the Florida panhandle, significant westward shifts are occurring with this model as well. This could be due to Isaac staying weaker than forecast. All interests from SE Texas to the Florida coastlines should closely monitor this situation!!
Wednesday, August 22, 2012
Saturday, August 18, 2012
Thursday, August 16, 2012
Tropical Storm Gordon has formed in the north central atlantic this morning. Ts Gordon is moving northward but is forecast to move northeastward with time possibly affecting the Azores Islands in a few days. Although Gordon is not forecast to become a hurricane, a strong tropical storm is not out if the question. Tropical Storm Gordon will be no threat to the United States coastlines.
Later this weekend the remnants of what once was TD#7 will move into the Bay of Campeche bringing tropical moisture to the area. The combination of this energy combined with a frontal boundary pushing southward into the GOM could bring some development over the course of the weekend. This area should be watched for development and we will keep you posted if that is indeed the case.
Monday, August 13, 2012
SAL: Saharan Air Layer
LLC: Low Level Circulation
EPAC: Eastern Pacific Ocean
EATL: Eastern Atlantic Ocean
MCP: Minimum Central Pressure
CDO: Central Dense Overcast
GOM: Gulf of Mexico
NHC: National Hurricane Center
UKMET: United Kingdom Met Office Model
NOGAPS: Navy Operational Global Prediction System
CMC: Environment Canada Global Environmental Multiscale Model
ECMWF: The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s Global Model
GFS: Global Forecasting System
ITCZ: Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone
COC: Center of Circulation
AOI: Area of Interest
The tropics are currently rather quiet for this time of year, and I don’t expect any major activity for about 3-4 days. The remnants of TD07 continue to struggle through the Central Caribbean. A combination of dry air, wind shear, and trade winds continue to eat away at whatever convection tries to develop. Some computer models try bring TD07 back to life and some don’t. I am going to hedge my bets on TD07 not reforming. There are just too many obstacles in the way for the wave including land, and more dry air out in front of the system. I would probably be at 10% chance of redeveloping, which is a little bit lower then the NHC’s 20% chance. As for 93L, I do not see this system developing and would also put it at a 10% chance for redevelopment. According to model guidance, 93L will merge with a trough of low pressure as it starts to make its way out to sea. Convection has also been nonexistent throughout its lifecycle due to a large amount of dry air entangled within the storm.
Remnants of TD07 struggle to survive.
93L will not escape the dry air for some time.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic there is a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa that currently has a little bit of spin to it. If the wave can fire off more convection and vorticity values come up, an invest of the area could be required.
850 mb shows an elongated spin coming off of Africa.
Hector remains a highly sheared tropical cyclone with most of the convection off to the west of the LLC. The current CI Dvorak values tag this system as a weak tropical storm. The forecast for Hector is to continue on a westward track for a day or two and then start to move northwestward where it will encounter cooler SST’s. At this point it will degenerate into a remnant low. Also in the EPAC we have invest 95E. This area of concern is not forecasted to develop in the next 48 hours, but the area will still have to be monitored.
Hector trying to fire off convection in the EPAC.
Thanks everyone for reading!
Also, these forecasts do not reflect the OFFICIAL forecasts from the NHC; please consult the NHC for official public forecast on all active Tropical Cyclones.
Saturday, August 11, 2012
Friday, August 10, 2012
Saturday, August 4, 2012
Ernesto has become better organized since yesterday with a persistent CDO and expansion of the spiral bands and upper-level outflow. However, recon this morning found that Ernesto has not strengthened since yesterday, and the central pressure is actually up a few millibars. The impressive organization of Ernesto with this high of a pressure came as a surprise to me, but the idea that this storm would halt intensification upon entering the Caribbean until about 75W has verified nicely so far. I explain in the video my theory as to why Ernesto has been firing all of this convection without strengthening.
Once past 75W, or about the longitude of Jamaica, conditions will rapidly improve for Ernesto as the upper-level pattern allows expansion of upper ridging above the storm, and the trade winds slow down in the western Caribbean, both of which should allow pressures to fall and the storm to strengthen. We could see Ernesto quickly become a hurricane in the western Caribbean, and a big problem for the Yucatan Peninsula. If Ernesto crosses a portion of the Yucatan it will knock it down, but Ernesto may reach his peak intensity afterwards in the Gulf of Mexico.
Ernesto’s track is still the toughest part of this forecast. It will largely be a function of his intensity, since a stronger storm will tend to move more northward into the weakness in the steering ridge that will be over the north gulf coast over the next several days. The forecasted pattern consists of not a wide open trough, but rather a large area of sprawling, light, erratic winds over the Gulf of Mexico, indicative of a weak steering pattern that a strengthening Ernesto will likely start to turn more northwest into while moving slower. I believe this will eventually take Ernesto near the northeastern Yucatan, and then into the western Gulf of Mexico. The largely uncertain part of the forecast is where the second landfall in the Gulf of Mexico will be. Right now I am leaning towards the idea that Ernesto will be guided back towards the WNW by the Texas ridge into northern Mexico or southern Texas, a solution supported by last night’s ECMWF ensembles. However, this is still 6-8 days out, and if we have a particularly powerful hurricane moving far enough north in the NW Caribbean, the door could open for a track into the north gulf coast instead, so the entire north and west gulf coasts and the Yucatan Peninsula should closely monitor Ernesto, as he could become a big problem down the road.
We shall see what happens!
Tuesday, July 31, 2012
Despite a rather dull July in the tropics, things are starting to heat up and become more active. Yesterday an area of low pressure was designated Invest 99L by the National Hurricane Center. This area currently has a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. Also entering the northeast Carribean sea is a vigorous tropical wave. While this wave is not currently expected to develop in the short term, it may have to be watched should it enter the GOM where conditions in 4 to 5 days could be more favorable.
Forecast for Invest 99L
99L is currently embedded within the ITCZ or Intertropical Convergence Zone. Before significant development can occur 99L must lift itself west-northwest and detach from the ITCZ. Conditions are fairly conducive for development as 99L approaches the Lesser Antilles islands this weekend. Most operational model guidance bring 99L to tropical storm status before entering the Carribean Sea. Once in the Carribean wind shear could be a limiting factor to the intensification of 99L due to a weak El Nino. During El Nino years trade winds are typically stronger in the Carribean limiting development of tropical systems. Once in the Carribean the TCHP or tropical cyclone heat potential will come into play in strengthening 99L. The TCHP is the amount of deep hot water available to fuel a tropical cyclone. A recon flight is tentatively scheduled for Friday, August 3. If recon can find a closed area of low pressure the models should be able to get a better handle on where 99L will eventually track.