Saturday, August 18, 2012
Thursday, August 16, 2012
Tropical Storm Gordon has formed in the north central atlantic this morning. Ts Gordon is moving northward but is forecast to move northeastward with time possibly affecting the Azores Islands in a few days. Although Gordon is not forecast to become a hurricane, a strong tropical storm is not out if the question. Tropical Storm Gordon will be no threat to the United States coastlines.
Later this weekend the remnants of what once was TD#7 will move into the Bay of Campeche bringing tropical moisture to the area. The combination of this energy combined with a frontal boundary pushing southward into the GOM could bring some development over the course of the weekend. This area should be watched for development and we will keep you posted if that is indeed the case.
Monday, August 13, 2012
SAL: Saharan Air Layer
LLC: Low Level Circulation
EPAC: Eastern Pacific Ocean
EATL: Eastern Atlantic Ocean
MCP: Minimum Central Pressure
CDO: Central Dense Overcast
GOM: Gulf of Mexico
NHC: National Hurricane Center
UKMET: United Kingdom Met Office Model
NOGAPS: Navy Operational Global Prediction System
CMC: Environment Canada Global Environmental Multiscale Model
ECMWF: The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s Global Model
GFS: Global Forecasting System
ITCZ: Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone
COC: Center of Circulation
AOI: Area of Interest
The tropics are currently rather quiet for this time of year, and I don’t expect any major activity for about 3-4 days. The remnants of TD07 continue to struggle through the Central Caribbean. A combination of dry air, wind shear, and trade winds continue to eat away at whatever convection tries to develop. Some computer models try bring TD07 back to life and some don’t. I am going to hedge my bets on TD07 not reforming. There are just too many obstacles in the way for the wave including land, and more dry air out in front of the system. I would probably be at 10% chance of redeveloping, which is a little bit lower then the NHC’s 20% chance. As for 93L, I do not see this system developing and would also put it at a 10% chance for redevelopment. According to model guidance, 93L will merge with a trough of low pressure as it starts to make its way out to sea. Convection has also been nonexistent throughout its lifecycle due to a large amount of dry air entangled within the storm.
Remnants of TD07 struggle to survive.
93L will not escape the dry air for some time.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic there is a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa that currently has a little bit of spin to it. If the wave can fire off more convection and vorticity values come up, an invest of the area could be required.
850 mb shows an elongated spin coming off of Africa.
Hector remains a highly sheared tropical cyclone with most of the convection off to the west of the LLC. The current CI Dvorak values tag this system as a weak tropical storm. The forecast for Hector is to continue on a westward track for a day or two and then start to move northwestward where it will encounter cooler SST’s. At this point it will degenerate into a remnant low. Also in the EPAC we have invest 95E. This area of concern is not forecasted to develop in the next 48 hours, but the area will still have to be monitored.
Hector trying to fire off convection in the EPAC.
Thanks everyone for reading!
Also, these forecasts do not reflect the OFFICIAL forecasts from the NHC; please consult the NHC for official public forecast on all active Tropical Cyclones.