Saturday, August 18, 2012
TS Helene, Hurricane Gordon, Isaac Soon to Come!!
Good Morning, Hurricane Gordon continues to move off to the east towards the Azores Islands as a 85 MHP storm. Gordon could strengthen a bit more before moving into cooler waters and becoming extra-tropical. Hurricane Gordon is no threat to any US landmass. Tropical Storm Helene has made landfall along the central Mexican coastline this morning and has been downgraded to a tropical depression. While dissipation over land seems likely over the next few days over northern Mexico, a second solution is also possible as depicted by the GFS model. Helene could move back out over water and restrengthen, possibly moving northward toward the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. It is also possible that the GFS is "seeing" a piece of energy or leftover convection interating with a frontal system currently pushing into SE Texas and later offshore. Development along frontal boundaries are all too common this time of year especially since conditions in the Gulf of Mexico appear to be favorable and water temperatures are high. This is something to watch over the next few days as steering currents for Helene remain weak and it appears she may meander for a few days. Invest 94L has been designated for a robust tropical wave that moved off the African coast a few days ago. Models are latching onto development of this system and conditions appear to be ripe in the central and western Atlantic as 94L makes its trek westward. All indications are that this system could become Tropical Storm Isaac in 24 to 36 hrs. This system will need to be watched closely over the next few days and will likely become the leading weather story as most models predict 94L developing into a powerful system. The first landmass to feel future Isaac's effects will be the Lesser Antilles Islands and Puerto Rico in approximately 5 days or so. Thereafter the models diverge somewhat on a track into the Gulf of Mexico by a weaker system, or recurve just off the East Coast by a strong hurricane. A recurve near Bermuda is also not out of the question. Future Isaacs eventual track will depend on the orientation of the A/B high, and timing of troughs of low pressure over the eastern seaboard. This area needs to be watched carefully over the next 10 days or so. Thanks, Jeremy
Posted by Xtremeweathertracker at 10:37 AM