Saturday, September 1, 2012

Tropical Storm Leslie Could Imact US!!

Good Evening, Tropical Storm Leslie is located just north and east of the Lesser Antilles Islands this evening and is moving west-northwest near 18 MPH. Leslie is forecast to turn more to the northwest and then north near a break or weakness in the Atlantic ridge of high pressure. This weakness largely caused by Hurricane Kirk could ultimately steer Leslie out to sea east of Bermuda. However many factors are at play with the steering of Leslie, including the remnants of Hurricane Isaac, a cutoff low pressure forecast to develop near Florida, and the timing and strength of troughs of low pressure exiting the east coast over the next few days. Leslie has remained weak while dealing with northwesterly shear, but could strengthen in a few days to hurricane strength as she continues northward. Models diverge on a track near Bermuda to one that would directly impact the U.S. Models should come into better agreement in a few days as some of the steering influences become more clear. All interests along the East Coast of the United States and Bermuda should keep a close eye on Leslie. Thanks, Jeremy

Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Hurricane Isaac Makes Landfall in Louisiana!!

Good Aftenoon, Hurricane Isaac made landfall last night just west of the mouth of the Mississippi river with sustained winds of 80 MPH with higher gusts. Thereafter Isaac wobble southwest and offshore making a second landfall near Grand Isle and Houma Louisiana later last night. After making landfall the second time, Isaac stalled for 6 to 8 hours dumping 10 inches of rainfall and creating storm surges of 10 to 12 feet in some places along SE Louisiana, south Mississippi, and southern Alabama. Isaac continues to meander off to the northwest while maintaining hurricane intensity and a rather impressive satellite and radar appearance. Isaac is forecast to move very slowly off to the northwest passing between Lafayette and Baton Rouge Louisiana. Thereafter models diverge a bit from a track northward in to Arkansas or a path more northwestward to west-northwestward into eastern Texas. Regardless of track Isaac is a very large well structured system and impacts will be felt over a large area. Everyone living within a watch or warning area should pay close attention to Isaac and heed warnings from the NWS, NHC, and local officials. Thanks, Jeremy

Monday, August 27, 2012

Good Afternoon, Tropical Storm Isaac continues to slowly strengthen as he moves into the central Gulf of Mexico. The latest information from the hurricane hunters show slowly lowering pressures and a ragged eye approximately 26 miles in diameter. The last 4 fixes from the hurricane hunters show a trend more toward the west-northwest as opposed to the northwest motion forecast by the National Hurricane Center. This is most likely in response to the high pressure system to Isaac's north being a bit stronger than forecasted. Model guidance continue to be in conflict with the European model and the UKMET on the eastern side of the envelope and the GFDL and the GFS on the western flank. Intensity forecast also continues to be a challenge. Currently Isaac is forecast by the NHC to make landfall at Categeory 1 status. Given the warm gulf temps, low wind shear, and good upper level outflow i would not be surprised to see Isaac make a run at Category 2 status before landfall. Since confidence in final landfall is low everyone from SE Texas to the Mississippi coastlines should monitor Isaac's progress. Subtle shifts or jogs in track could influence Isaac's eventual landfall location. Regardless of exact location of landfall, Isaac will have an influence over a large area due to his size. Also storm surge amounts are likely to be greater than the windspeeds would indicate due to his massive windfield. Some models are hinting at a slowing or stall near the coast with a bend more to the left or west, which would also allow water to pile up along the coastlines. I expect a storm surge of 8-12 feet to the east of landfall location. Depending upon landfall location SE Texas should feel impacts of Isaac. A track near New Orleans would result in only brisk northerly winds but a track near SW Louisiana would result in heavy winds and rain as Isaac makes his closest path to our east. Please continue to monitor this situation and i will update later today! Thanks, Jeremy