Saturday, August 11, 2012

TD#7 Is Dead, Could Regenerate!!

Good Evening, TD #7 was declared dead by the National Hurricane Center this afternoon after a Airforce Recon plane found no closed center of circulation. This system has struggled with dry air and wind shear since its birth so its no surprise that the negative factors won. Some computer models regenerate TD7 in a few days in the western Carribean where conditions could become more favorable, but at this time chances of that look rather slim. Invest 93L is moving northwestward toward an area not conducive for development. If developement should occur most computer models recurve the disturbance well before any interaction with land. A trough of low pressure or cold front is sagging southward into the SE United States and is forecast to push offshore into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. This frontal system combined with an upper level low pressure area moving northward from Cuba could be an area to watch later this weekend. If the ULL can work its way down to the surface there is abundant moisture available in the SE Gulf and historically the cut off portion of a frontal system adds energy to the mix making this an area to keep tabs on the next few days. Thanks, Forecaster Mansfield

Friday, August 10, 2012

TD #7 and Invest 93L

Good Morning, The tropics remain active as we have TD #7 and Invest 93L to discuss today!! Ernesto's remnants will continue to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico. Some global models suggest that the mid level circulation of Ernesto will remain intact and form a new topical cyclone in the East Pacific in the next few days! TD #7 continues to struggle with dry air, fast forward speed and shear as it makes its way westward toward the lesser antilles islands. A path south of Jamaica is not unreasonable considering the low intensity of the disturbance. TD #7 could dissipate or degenerate into an open wave after entering the Carribean in a few days. Invest 93L is near the Cape Verde Islands and could become a tropical cyclone in the next few days as it moves west-northwest into the Atlantic. Current models recurve 93L before impacting any landmass, however conditions do change and we will need to keep a close eye on TD #7 and Invest 93L over the next several days! Thanks, Jeremy