Tropical Storm Leslie Could Imact US!!

Good Evening, Tropical Storm Leslie is located just north and east of the Lesser Antilles Islands this evening and is moving west-northwest near 18 MPH. Leslie is forecast to turn more to the northwest and then north near a break or weakness in the Atlantic ridge of high pressure. This weakness largely caused by Hurricane Kirk could ultimately steer Leslie out to sea east of Bermuda. However many factors are at play with the steering of Leslie, including the remnants of Hurricane Isaac, a cutoff low pressure forecast to develop near Florida, and the timing and strength of troughs of low pressure exiting the east coast over the next few days. Leslie has remained weak while dealing with northwesterly shear, but could strengthen in a few days to hurricane strength as she continues northward. Models diverge on a track near Bermuda to one that would directly impact the U.S. Models should come into better agreement in a few days as some of the steering influences become more clear. All interests along the East Coast of the United States and Bermuda should keep a close eye on Leslie. Thanks, Jeremy

Hurricane Isaac Makes Landfall in Louisiana!!

Good Aftenoon, Hurricane Isaac made landfall last night just west of the mouth of the Mississippi river with sustained winds of 80 MPH with higher gusts. Thereafter Isaac wobble southwest and offshore making a second landfall near Grand Isle and Houma Louisiana later last night. After making landfall the second time, Isaac stalled for 6 to 8 hours dumping 10 inches of rainfall and creating storm surges of 10 to 12 feet in some places along SE Louisiana, south Mississippi, and southern Alabama. Isaac continues to meander off to the northwest while maintaining hurricane intensity and a rather impressive satellite and radar appearance. Isaac is forecast to move very slowly off to the northwest passing between Lafayette and Baton Rouge Louisiana. Thereafter models diverge a bit from a track northward in to Arkansas or a path more northwestward to west-northwestward into eastern Texas. Regardless of track Isaac is a very large well structured system and impacts will be felt over a large area. Everyone living within a watch or warning area should pay close attention to Isaac and heed warnings from the NWS, NHC, and local officials. Thanks, Jeremy

Good Afternoon, Tropical Storm Isaac continues to slowly strengthen as he moves into the central Gulf of Mexico. The latest information from the hurricane hunters show slowly lowering pressures and a ragged eye approximately 26 miles in diameter. The last 4 fixes from the hurricane hunters show a trend more toward the west-northwest as opposed to the northwest motion forecast by the National Hurricane Center. This is most likely in response to the high pressure system to Isaac's north being a bit stronger than forecasted. Model guidance continue to be in conflict with the European model and the UKMET on the eastern side of the envelope and the GFDL and the GFS on the western flank. Intensity forecast also continues to be a challenge. Currently Isaac is forecast by the NHC to make landfall at Categeory 1 status. Given the warm gulf temps, low wind shear, and good upper level outflow i would not be surprised to see Isaac make a run at Category 2 status before landfall. Since confidence in final landfall is low everyone from SE Texas to the Mississippi coastlines should monitor Isaac's progress. Subtle shifts or jogs in track could influence Isaac's eventual landfall location. Regardless of exact location of landfall, Isaac will have an influence over a large area due to his size. Also storm surge amounts are likely to be greater than the windspeeds would indicate due to his massive windfield. Some models are hinting at a slowing or stall near the coast with a bend more to the left or west, which would also allow water to pile up along the coastlines. I expect a storm surge of 8-12 feet to the east of landfall location. Depending upon landfall location SE Texas should feel impacts of Isaac. A track near New Orleans would result in only brisk northerly winds but a track near SW Louisiana would result in heavy winds and rain as Isaac makes his closest path to our east. Please continue to monitor this situation and i will update later today! Thanks, Jeremy

TS Isaac Disorganized Near NE Cuba

Good Afternoon, I appologise for not posting an update sooner, but family illness has kept me busy!! Tropical Storm Isaac crossed the extreme western tip of Haiti and then moved over the eastern tip of Cuba late last night and is still hovering near the northeast Cuban coastlines. Isaac should begin to strengthen once over the warm waters of the Florida straits in 12 to 24 hours. Isaac should move northwest into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and strengthen to a hurricane near the southern tip of Florida. Thereafter the forecast track as well as intensity is a bit tricky. A trough of low pressure in the mid layers of the atmosphere will lift northeastward leaving behind a weakness along the periphery of the Atlantic high. How pronounced this weakness is combined with the intensity of Isaac will ultimately determine Isaac's track. Models are in fairly good agreement through day 2, however thereafter a significant spread in the guidance envelope is noted from run to run. The latest run of the GFS has Isaac making landfall along the MS and AL border, while in a new twist the Euro has Isaac making landfall along the Florida panhandle. It must be also noted that many members of the GFS ensemble runs are west of the mouth of the Mississippi river, with one near Galveston. My confidence is low after 48 hours and all interests from Eastern Texas to Florida should monitor the progress of Isaac. Immediate impacts will be tropical storm force conditions in the Florida Keys and thereafter possible hurricane conditions in extreme southern Florida with storm surge of 5-7 feet. Hurricane preparations in those areas should be rushed to completion and all warnings by local officials heeded. Thanks, Jeremy

Tropical Storm Isaac....Westward Trend!!

Good Afternoon,

Quick update...models this afternoon have trended significantly westward with the 12Z Euro model bringing Isaac ashore on the Texas/Louisiana border. While the GFS has landfall near the Florida panhandle, significant westward shifts are occurring with this model as well. This could be due to Isaac staying weaker than forecast. All interests from SE Texas to the Florida coastlines should closely monitor this situation!!

Thanks

Jeremy Mansfield

Ts Isaac Still Weak

Good Afternoon, Tropical Storm Isaac continues to become more defined and is expanding in size. The hurricane hunters are currently investigating the system and could find the center relocating further south and west than the previous fix. This could have an impact on eventuall track. The models are in fairly good agreement through day 3 keeping Isaac just south of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola. Then the models diverge somewhat with the Euro model staying south of Cuba and the GFS crossing eastern Cuba toward southern Florida. I have little confidence in the five day track of Isaac, so interests from the GOM to Florida should closely monitor this situation!! Thanks, Jeremy

TS Helene, Hurricane Gordon, Isaac Soon to Come!!

Good Morning, Hurricane Gordon continues to move off to the east towards the Azores Islands as a 85 MHP storm. Gordon could strengthen a bit more before moving into cooler waters and becoming extra-tropical. Hurricane Gordon is no threat to any US landmass. Tropical Storm Helene has made landfall along the central Mexican coastline this morning and has been downgraded to a tropical depression. While dissipation over land seems likely over the next few days over northern Mexico, a second solution is also possible as depicted by the GFS model. Helene could move back out over water and restrengthen, possibly moving northward toward the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. It is also possible that the GFS is "seeing" a piece of energy or leftover convection interating with a frontal system currently pushing into SE Texas and later offshore. Development along frontal boundaries are all too common this time of year especially since conditions in the Gulf of Mexico appear to be favorable and water temperatures are high. This is something to watch over the next few days as steering currents for Helene remain weak and it appears she may meander for a few days. Invest 94L has been designated for a robust tropical wave that moved off the African coast a few days ago. Models are latching onto development of this system and conditions appear to be ripe in the central and western Atlantic as 94L makes its trek westward. All indications are that this system could become Tropical Storm Isaac in 24 to 36 hrs. This system will need to be watched closely over the next few days and will likely become the leading weather story as most models predict 94L developing into a powerful system. The first landmass to feel future Isaac's effects will be the Lesser Antilles Islands and Puerto Rico in approximately 5 days or so. Thereafter the models diverge somewhat on a track into the Gulf of Mexico by a weaker system, or recurve just off the East Coast by a strong hurricane. A recurve near Bermuda is also not out of the question. Future Isaacs eventual track will depend on the orientation of the A/B high, and timing of troughs of low pressure over the eastern seaboard. This area needs to be watched carefully over the next 10 days or so. Thanks, Jeremy