Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Hurricane Katia, Maria and Nate Soon!!!

Good Afternoon,

In today's update we will analyze Hurricane Katia which is currently a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 115 MPH. Katia is moving to the northwest at about 9 MPH and should start to move in a more northerly direction over the next couple of days. Thereafter she is expected to turn more to the northeast and re-curve between the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Bermuda. Her impacts should be limited to gusty winds, a few outer band squalls and higher than normal surf and dangerous rip currents along the eastern seaboard and Bermuda.
Secondly, we discuss the homegrown tropical trouble that i mentioned in the last update in the Bay of Campeche that has recently been dubbed Invest 96L. This system could possible form from the leftovers from TS Lee combined with a frontal boundary that pushed into the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Slow development of this system is possible and it should drift to the north-northeast over time possibly impacting the central or eastern Gulf Coast in 5 days or so. Once again high pressure will block moisture from reaching into Texas to remedy the drought conditions that have been so persistent over the summer.
Third we will delve into the specifics of 95L which will be classified later today as Tropical Depression #14. TD# 14 should move west-northwest and become Tropical Storm Maria over the next several days. It is then forecast to move very close to the Leeward Islands or possibly into the Caribbean over the next several days. Models are disagreeing somewhat on the eventual track with the more prominent Euro model keeping the system week and moving it into the Caribbean later this week. Time will tell!!
Last, a small area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is located just to the east of the Lesser Antilles islands moving to the west. Development chances are slim at this point, but this area should be monitored for development as it moves into the Caribbean later this week!!
Thanks for stopping by!!!


Jeremy Mansfield

Xtreme Weather Tracker

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