Tropical Outlook: Eastern Pacific/ Atlantic

Good Afternoon Everyone! 

Acronym Key: 
SAL: Saharan Air Layer
LLC: Low Level Circulation
EPAC: Eastern Pacific Ocean
EATL: Eastern Atlantic Ocean
MCP: Minimum Central Pressure
CDO: Central Dense Overcast
GOM: Gulf of Mexico
NHC: National Hurricane Center
UKMET: United Kingdom Met Office Model
NOGAPS: Navy Operational Global Prediction System 
CMC: Environment Canada Global Environmental Multiscale Model 
ECMWF: The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s Global Model
GFS: Global Forecasting System
ITCZ: Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone
COC: Center of Circulation
AOI: Area of Interest


The tropics are currently rather quiet for this time of year, and I don’t expect any major activity for about 3-4 days. The remnants of TD07 continue to struggle through the Central Caribbean. A combination of dry air, wind shear, and trade winds continue to eat away at whatever convection tries to develop. Some computer models try bring TD07 back to life and some don’t. I am going to hedge my bets on TD07 not reforming. There are just too many obstacles in the way for the wave including land, and more dry air out in front of the system. I would probably be at 10% chance of redeveloping, which is a little bit lower then the NHC’s 20% chance. As for 93L, I do not see this system developing and would also put it at a 10% chance for redevelopment. According to model guidance, 93L will merge with a trough of low pressure as it starts to make its way out to sea. Convection has also been nonexistent throughout its lifecycle due to a large amount of dry air entangled within the storm. 


Remnants of TD07 struggle to survive. 


93L will not escape the dry air for some time.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic there is a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa that currently has a little bit of spin to it. If the wave can fire off more convection and vorticity values come up, an invest of the area could be required. 


850 mb shows an elongated spin coming off of Africa. 

Hector remains a highly sheared tropical cyclone with most of the convection off to the west of the LLC. The current CI Dvorak values tag this system as a weak tropical storm. The forecast for Hector is to continue on a westward track for a day or two and then start to move northwestward where it will encounter cooler SST’s. At this point it will degenerate into a remnant low. Also in the EPAC we have invest 95E. This area of concern is not forecasted to develop in the next 48 hours, but the area will still have to be monitored. 


Hector trying to fire off convection in the EPAC. 

Thanks everyone for reading! 
Also, these forecasts do not reflect the OFFICIAL forecasts from the NHC; please consult the NHC for official public forecast on all active Tropical Cyclones. 
~Matt~ 

TD#7 Is Dead, Could Regenerate!!

Good Evening, TD #7 was declared dead by the National Hurricane Center this afternoon after a Airforce Recon plane found no closed center of circulation. This system has struggled with dry air and wind shear since its birth so its no surprise that the negative factors won. Some computer models regenerate TD7 in a few days in the western Carribean where conditions could become more favorable, but at this time chances of that look rather slim. Invest 93L is moving northwestward toward an area not conducive for development. If developement should occur most computer models recurve the disturbance well before any interaction with land. A trough of low pressure or cold front is sagging southward into the SE United States and is forecast to push offshore into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. This frontal system combined with an upper level low pressure area moving northward from Cuba could be an area to watch later this weekend. If the ULL can work its way down to the surface there is abundant moisture available in the SE Gulf and historically the cut off portion of a frontal system adds energy to the mix making this an area to keep tabs on the next few days. Thanks, Forecaster Mansfield

TD #7 and Invest 93L

Good Morning, The tropics remain active as we have TD #7 and Invest 93L to discuss today!! Ernesto's remnants will continue to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico. Some global models suggest that the mid level circulation of Ernesto will remain intact and form a new topical cyclone in the East Pacific in the next few days! TD #7 continues to struggle with dry air, fast forward speed and shear as it makes its way westward toward the lesser antilles islands. A path south of Jamaica is not unreasonable considering the low intensity of the disturbance. TD #7 could dissipate or degenerate into an open wave after entering the Carribean in a few days. Invest 93L is near the Cape Verde Islands and could become a tropical cyclone in the next few days as it moves west-northwest into the Atlantic. Current models recurve 93L before impacting any landmass, however conditions do change and we will need to keep a close eye on TD #7 and Invest 93L over the next several days! Thanks, Jeremy

Tropical Storm Ernesto!!

This Tropical Tidbit is from Levi Cowan!! His material will be posted here when i cannot personally post updates!! I trust his forecasts and analysis!!



Ernesto has become better organized since yesterday with a persistent CDO and expansion of the spiral bands and upper-level outflow. However, recon this morning found that Ernesto has not strengthened since yesterday, and the central pressure is actually up a few millibars. The impressive organization of Ernesto with this high of a pressure came as a surprise to me, but the idea that this storm would halt intensification upon entering the Caribbean until about 75W has verified nicely so far. I explain in the video my theory as to why Ernesto has been firing all of this convection without strengthening.
Once past 75W, or about the longitude of Jamaica, conditions will rapidly improve for Ernesto as the upper-level pattern allows expansion of upper ridging above the storm, and the trade winds slow down in the western Caribbean, both of which should allow pressures to fall and the storm to strengthen. We could see Ernesto quickly become a hurricane in the western Caribbean, and a big problem for the Yucatan Peninsula. If Ernesto crosses a portion of the Yucatan it will knock it down, but Ernesto may reach his peak intensity afterwards in the Gulf of Mexico.
Ernesto’s track is still the toughest part of this forecast. It will largely be a function of his intensity, since a stronger storm will tend to move more northward into the weakness in the steering ridge that will be over the north gulf coast over the next several days. The forecasted pattern consists of not a wide open trough, but rather a large area of sprawling, light, erratic winds over the Gulf of Mexico, indicative of a weak steering pattern that a strengthening Ernesto will likely start to turn more northwest into while moving slower. I believe this will eventually take Ernesto near the northeastern Yucatan, and then into the western Gulf of Mexico. The largely uncertain part of the forecast is where the second landfall in the Gulf of Mexico will be. Right now I am leaning towards the idea that Ernesto will be guided back towards the WNW by the Texas ridge into northern Mexico or southern Texas, a solution supported by last night’s ECMWF ensembles. However, this is still 6-8 days out, and if we have a particularly powerful hurricane moving far enough north in the NW Caribbean, the door could open for a track into the north gulf coast instead, so the entire north and west gulf coasts and the Yucatan Peninsula should closely monitor Ernesto, as he could become a big problem down the road.
We shall see what happens!

Tropics Heating Up: Invest 99L

Good Evening,
 Despite a rather dull July in the tropics, things are starting to heat up and become more active. Yesterday an area of low pressure was designated Invest 99L by the National Hurricane Center. This area currently has a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. Also entering the northeast Carribean sea is a vigorous tropical wave. While this wave is not currently expected to develop in the short term, it may have to be watched should it enter the GOM where conditions in 4 to 5 days could be more favorable.

Forecast for Invest 99L
99L is currently embedded within the ITCZ or Intertropical Convergence Zone. Before significant development can occur 99L must lift itself west-northwest and detach from the ITCZ. Conditions are fairly conducive for development as 99L approaches the Lesser Antilles islands this weekend. Most operational model guidance bring 99L to tropical storm status before entering the Carribean Sea. Once in the Carribean wind shear could be a limiting factor to the intensification of 99L due to a weak El Nino. During El Nino years trade winds are typically stronger in the Carribean limiting development of tropical systems. Once in the Carribean the TCHP or tropical cyclone heat potential will come into play in strengthening 99L. The TCHP is the amount of deep hot water available to fuel a tropical cyclone. A recon flight is tentatively scheduled for Friday, August 3. If recon can find a closed area of low pressure the models should be able to get a better handle on where 99L will eventually track.

2012 Tropical Weather Blog Back in Business!!!

Howdy Folks, Back to tropical weather posts...sorry to those who have been waiting on me to update the website..more updates are coming soon...thanks for being patient!! For now the Atlantic basin is relatively quiet with no tropical cyclones expected to develop in the next 7 days. No reliable computer models develop any system in the near future..there is a robust wave exiting Africa's west coast...but dry air in the Atlantic Ocean has thus far stifled any development so far!!! On a local note expect heavy rainfall for the next 7 days as a weak from slowly sags into our area and stalls enhancing moisture in SE Texas...our rain chances should stay in the 60% to 70% chance mainly in the afternoon!!!

Katia, Maria, Nate!!!

Good Afternoon,

Today's update briefly discusses Hurricane Katia which is a Category 1 hurricane and is moving north between Bermuda and the U.S. Katia is no threat to any landmass at this time and should continue her re-curve back into the open Atlantic,
Tropical Storm Maria has weakened significantly since yesterday partly due to shear and also partly due to her fast forward speed of 20 to 22 knots. Her center is completely exposed and devoid of convection. A downgrade is possible today after the hurricane hunters investigate, and its a possibility that she may be degenerating into an open wave. Her strength will greatly influence her eventual track. She should continue to the west or west-northwest over the next couple of days affecting the northern Leeward Islands and then Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Thereafter the central and northern Bahamas should monitor her progress as it is likely that they would be the next affected. Maria could pose a threat to the eastern seaboard, however a re-curve looks more likely at this time.
Finally Tropical Storm Nate is located in the Bay of Campeche moving little over the past few hours. Nate has been struggling with moderate shear and very dry air keeping him on the weak side for the short term. Lee should slowly start a northward drift over the next several days likely impacting the northern gulf coast later next week. Models differ significantly from a track into Mexico, to a track towards the upper Texas coastlines and into Louisiana. Several factors will come into play to determine the final track of Nate and it is much too early to forecast that exact point. All interests in the Gulf of Mexico should closely monitor Nate's progress.
Thanks for stopping by!!!




Thanks,

Forecaster Mansfield

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