Hurricane Katia, Tropical Storm Maria, Nate Soon!!!

Good Morning,

Hurricane Katia is currently located southwest of Bermuda moving to the northwest at 9 MPH. Katia is a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 85 MPH. Katia is currently slowing down to make her northward turn between the Outer Banks of North Carolina and the island of Bermuda. Bermuda as well as the eastern seaboard could experience gusty winds, large swells, and rip currents. Other than this the impacts to any land areas should be minimal.
Newly named Tropical Storm Maria is located in the central Atlantic and is moving westward at a fast clip of 23 MPH. Maria has maximum sustained winds of 50 MPH. Maria looks rather disorganized on satellite but should strengthen slowly over the next few days. Maria is forecast to move to the west or west-northwest around the periphery of the Azores High moving toward the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend. Those two areas could see hurricane force conditions later this weekend as Maria makes her approach. There is a possibility that Maria stays weak and enters the Caribbean as the Euro model has stubbornly depicted. Time will tell!!
Finally, there is an area of disturbed weather located in the Bay of Campeche dubbed 96L west of the Yucatan Peninsula that is slowly becoming better organized. None of the reliable models show significant development; however slow development is possible over the next few days. The main hindrance to development of 96L is dry air in the Gulf of Mexico. If development occurs models differ on track from taking 96L into central Mexico, to moving it northward toward the Louisiana coastline. This area will have to be watched carefully over the next several days as the Gulf of Mexico's water temperatures are bath water warm and shear is forecast to be moderate to light. The NHC has tasked a Hurricane Hunter aircraft to investigate the system this afternoon.
Thanks for stopping by!!!




Thanks,

Jeremy

Xtreme Weather Tracker

Hurricane Katia, Maria and Nate Soon!!!

Good Afternoon,

In today's update we will analyze Hurricane Katia which is currently a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 115 MPH. Katia is moving to the northwest at about 9 MPH and should start to move in a more northerly direction over the next couple of days. Thereafter she is expected to turn more to the northeast and re-curve between the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Bermuda. Her impacts should be limited to gusty winds, a few outer band squalls and higher than normal surf and dangerous rip currents along the eastern seaboard and Bermuda.
Secondly, we discuss the homegrown tropical trouble that i mentioned in the last update in the Bay of Campeche that has recently been dubbed Invest 96L. This system could possible form from the leftovers from TS Lee combined with a frontal boundary that pushed into the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Slow development of this system is possible and it should drift to the north-northeast over time possibly impacting the central or eastern Gulf Coast in 5 days or so. Once again high pressure will block moisture from reaching into Texas to remedy the drought conditions that have been so persistent over the summer.
Third we will delve into the specifics of 95L which will be classified later today as Tropical Depression #14. TD# 14 should move west-northwest and become Tropical Storm Maria over the next several days. It is then forecast to move very close to the Leeward Islands or possibly into the Caribbean over the next several days. Models are disagreeing somewhat on the eventual track with the more prominent Euro model keeping the system week and moving it into the Caribbean later this week. Time will tell!!
Last, a small area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is located just to the east of the Lesser Antilles islands moving to the west. Development chances are slim at this point, but this area should be monitored for development as it moves into the Caribbean later this week!!
Thanks for stopping by!!!





Thanks,

Jeremy Mansfield

Xtreme Weather Tracker

Hurricane Katia, Invest 95L and Homegrown Tropical Troubles!!!

Good Afternoon,

Today's update discusses Hurricane Katia and her potential track close to the east coast of the U.S. I also discuss newly designated Invest 95L located southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Lastly, there are indications of homegrown tropical trouble in the Bay of Campeche west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the next 3 to 5 days from the remnants of Lee interacting with a cut-off frontal system in the Gulf of Mexico. Thanks for stopping by!!



Thanks,

Jeremy

Xtreme Weather Tracker

Tropical Storm Lee Strengthens Near Landfall!!

Good Morning,

Quick update on TS Lee located 100 miles south of Lafayette, La. Lee has sustained winds of 60 MPH and should make landfall just west of the Achafalaya Bay later this afternoon. Thereafter Lee is forecast to move slowly northward into central Louisiana before turning more to the northeast in 3 to 4 days. Currently SE Texas is receiving light to moderate rainfall and gusty northeast winds from Lee!! Thanks for stopping by!!



Thanks,

Jeremy Mansfield

Xtreme Weather Tracker

Tropical Storm Lee to Soak Louisiana!!!

Good Afternoon,

Tropical Storm Lee formed this afternoon from Depression #13. As of 1 PM Lee had sustained winds of 40 MPH with higher gusts. Lee is currently wobbling to the northwest at 4 MPH. Steering currents should remain relatively light over the next couple of days and Lee should slowly meander to the north or northwest and finally make landfall on the coast of Louisiana somewhere between Lake Charles and Morgan City although my confidence in this forecast is low at best. The models are struggling with Lee's final outcome with some keeping him offshore through Tuesday to others looping Lee in the Gulf of Mexico and a couple of models taking Lee southwest into Brownsville. Parts of SE Louisiana could receive over a foot of rainfall over the next five days, while drought stricken Texas may not even see an inch of rain as it should remain on the western side of the circulation or "clean" side of the storm. Updates will follow as conditions are likely to remain uncertain in the future! Hurricane Katia is located northwest of the Leeward Islands moving west-northwestward at 15 MPH. Katia is forecast to move close to the SE coast of the US next week. While it is too early to forecast what Katia's impacts on the SE will be it is safe to say that Katia will need to be closely watched over the next few days!!! One more area of interest off the east coast of the US could possibly become a tropical storm over the next few hours. If a storm does form it will pose no threat to any land areas and it is interesting to note that if Maria does form today we will have tied 2005 as Hurricane Maria formed on September 2, 2005!! If this trend continues we could rival 2005 which was the most active hurricane season on record with 28 named storms!!! Thanks for stopping by!!!





Thanks,

Jeremy Mansfield

Xtreme Weather Tracker

Gulf Development Likely!!!

Good Afternoon,

Over the next several days we will be watching for development of Tropical Storm Lee in the NW Gulf of Mexico. An old frontal boundary combined with a tropical wave moving northwest out of the Caribbean should combine to form low pressure in the Central Gulf of Mexico. All indications are at this time that the low will move northwestward toward the upper Texas coastline and stall for a couple of days as steering currents are forecast to remain weak. Any stalling or meandering system in the warm Gulf water temps (88 degrees) could spell trouble and it is possible that a hurricane could form just off the Texas, Louisiana coastlines before getting pulled northward by a shortwave trough swinging through the northeast. At the very least SE Texas and SW Louisiana should expect enhanced rainfall chances and possible drought busting drenching tropical moisture to invade the area Thursday thru Monday. Tropical Storm Katia is located in the central Atlantic and should become a hurricane in 24 to 36 hours. Thereafter she is forecast to move north of the Leeward Islands as a major hurricane and could threaten Bermuda. While it is still too early to forecast whether or not Katia will impact the US it is looking more likely that a re-curve near Bermuda is the more likely scenario. Keep checking back for more updates. Thanks for stopping by!!




Thanks,

Jeremy Mansfield

Xtreme Weather Tracker

TD #12 & Rain on the Way for Texas!!!

Good Afternoon,

We are monitoring TD #12 in the far eastern Atlantic just southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. TD #12 is forecast to become Tropical Storm Katia in the next 24 to 36 hours. After a trek across the Atlantic in a west-northwesterly fashion TD # 12 could possible again threaten the SE U.S. Models vary on eventual track with some re-curving east of Bermuda. We also have some homegrown tropical trouble to discuss. An area of disturbed weather coupled with a trough split could develop in the western Gulf of Mexico toward the end of this week bringing at least much needed rainfall for Texas. The National Weather Service has issued a special weather statement for SE Texas and SW Louisiana stating that a widespread area of 2 to 3 inches of rainfall is expected with some areas receiving up to 7 inches of rainfall starting Thursday through Sunday of this week. Thanks for stopping by!!!



Thanks,

Jeremy Mansfield

Xtreme Weather Tracker